YouTube英語学習

留学なし英会話スクールなし費用なし　通翻訳者の僕がやってる英語学習

Stock Market Rebound: Is this Real or Fake?

Dan Takahashi

今回は、いつも投資の参考にさせてもらっている高橋ダンさんの動画を初紹介！

 

ダンさんも言っていますが、「金融と英語が今の日本人に足りない最も大きな要因」です。

 

日本人全員投資を勉強するべきだし、投資をする人はマジでダンさんの動画を見た方がいい。つまり日本人全員ダンさんの動画を見ろってことなんですけど(笑)

それくらい、本当にダンさんの動画はおすすめです。

 こちらは私のツイートですが、まさにこの通り。

こんな素晴らしいコンテンツがあって、その英訳解説までしてくれる僕のブログまであって(笑)、見ない理由、勉強しない理由が分からないです。

 

それでは今日もYouTube英語を楽しんでいきましょう！

 

00:00
Hey everyone ,my name is Dan Takashi and
00:02 日本の市場(日経平均)が5%も上がった！
today Japanese markets are up 5% yeah
00:09 holy cowの様にholyの後に色々な単語が来て「なんてこった」という表現です。
holy cow is right I can't believe it
00:11                           futures=先物
Australia is up 4% u.s. futures up over
00:16 what the xxx で「一体全体」の意味。heckに特に意味はないです
2% what the heck is going on markets
00:20 昨日は市場が暴落していたのに、今日は高騰している
were crashing yesterday now they're up
00:23 今回はその疑問にこたえたいと思います。
huge I'm here to answer all these
00:28
questions first I want to talk about why
00:31
the market is up so much today what was
00:34
announced just talk about Bank of Japan
00:36
talk about the Fed talk about feds new
00:39
sorry Trump's new one trillion dollar
00:42
infrastructure spending plan number two
00:45 we are done with~ で私たちは~について完了している
looking at the charts are we really done
00:50 今回のダウントレンドは終了したのか
with this going down trend our markets
00:55
going to go back up now let's look at
00:57
the charts what part of the charts do
00:59
you need to look at number three
01:01
as usual I'll give you my opinion guys
01:04
I've been doing this for a long time
01:06
I've been trading investing for 22 years
01:08
I was on Wall Street started as an
01:10
intern when I was 19 created my own
01:11
hedge fund with a partner and then I
01:13 stakeholderのstakeで利害関係の意、30歳でファンドを売却
also sell my stake when I was 30 I'm
01:15
traveling the world 60 different
01:16
countries I'm finally back in Japan
01:18
where I was born a little bit late to
01:21
start this English version I'm very
01:23
sorry guys I truly apologize I should
01:25
have started this earlier I've been
01:26
doing it only in Japanese for YouTube
01:28
and social media just for the last few
01:30
months and all of sudden it become such a
01:32
huge hit to be honest I was the most
01:34 誰よりも僕が驚いている
surprised out of everybody I got almost
01:36 百万の1/4、25万人のフォロワー
quarter million followers all over the
01:38
world and I'm so grateful and I'm trying
01:41 
to play catch-up now and you get the
01:42
English version so sorry guys
01:44 とにかく(それは置いといて、regardしないということ)、今日も始めましょう
regardless so let's get started today
01:47
what's going on first let's talk about
01:52
what is actually happening and why is
01:54
this happening Nikkei is up 5% yeah guys
01:58
this is very rare I've been watching the
02:00
Nick here for 22 years not not often
02:02
this, happens. yeah I know they're in a
02:04
corona Crush in March
02:05
markets are moving like crazy but that
02:07
usually doesn't happen I mean this is a
02:09
five is a big number three or four
02:11
happens with five is huge
02:13
that's very big the reason why mainly
02:16
two pieces actually three pieces of news
02:18
number one we're talking about the Fed
02:22
the FRB it's called Federal Reserve
02:24
Board in the US central bank they
02:27 (un+veil: ベールを取る) 新しい社債買い入れステップ
unveiled a new corporate bond buying step
02:28
basically they're buying everything
02:30
right now but they announced a new step
02:34
when they're buying corporate bonds as
02:37
part of this new supported measure
02:39
beautii coronavirus trying to restart
02:41
the economy they were buying before
02:43
what's called ETFs exchange traded funds
02:46
for corporate bonds now they're going to
02:49
go actually buy directly corporate bonds
02:52
each corporate bond that they want so
02:54
the market took this is a positive
02:55
another thing that was announced was
02:57
Trump administration is considering a 1
03:00
trillion dollar infrastructure spending
03:01
to be honest guys this is not new news
03:03
this has been talked about for months if
03:05
not even years he's been talking about
03:07
doing this so this is not new at all
03:09
body was announced today on top of this
03:11                     /   最後に大事なこととして、
news from the Fed and last but not least
03:13 日本からのニュースで
there was actually news from Japan and
03:16 少し重大なニュースです
it was a little bit of a big news this
03:18 このニュースは日本語なので(非日本人の)みんなは読めないと思うけど
is in Japanese I don't expect you guys
03:19
to be able to read this of course that's
03:20 僕が通訳します
why I'm here to translate basically from
03:24
going from 75 trillion to 110 trillion
03:26
yen there how do I say it basically
03:31 金融刺激策って言ったらいいのかな
monetary stimulus program is the easiest
03:33
way to translate it they're actually not
03:35
going to change how much they buy in
03:36
terms of commercial paper or corporate
03:38
bonds that's gonna stay at 20 trillion
03:39
yen right here so it's a little bit
03:42
different they're not actually changing
03:43
how much they're directly gonna buy or
03:45
impact the market but what they're
03:47
saying is that previously they estimated
03:49
55 trillion yen in new support to
03:54
financial institutions as in banks
03:56
insurance companies will borrow from the
03:58
Bank of Japan 55 trillion yen but now
04:01
they're estimating that number is going
04:02
to be 90 trillion so this is a bit of an
04:04
indirect monetary stimulus but
04:06
nonetheless they're forecasting the
04:09                                            (色んな金額の)寄せ集め
number to be now higher a little snippy
04:12
a little weird to me because why they
04:15
just you know this is a bit of a
04:16 直接的な資金供給ではないし
forecast it's not direct right they
04:19 本当にこの金額になるか分からない(真水の金額は違うんじゃないの)
don't know for sure this number is going
04:20                  でも、
to be this number but nonetheless this
04:22 ひとまずこのアナウンスが出た。
is announced so these three pieces of
04:24
news announced and markets all across
04:26
the world
04:27
are going crazy there apne kaiseki now o
04:29
came back down a little bit still 4.3%
04:32
Dow Jones futures the futures markets
04:35
even though markets are closed you just
04:36
keep trading up 2% so this is what's
04:38
happening what the heck is going on and
04:41
how do you interpret this that's what
04:43
I'm here for
04:43
looking at the charts so we just talked
04:47
about this all these pieces of news it
04:49
was really the biggest one was the
04:51
central bank right
04:52
the central bank coming in especially
04:54
the US central bank coming in and saying
04:55
okay they're gonna now buy individual
04:58
corporate bonds this is probably the
05:00
biggest piece of news that came out
05:02
today that really impacts the stock
05:03
market so individual corporate bonds how
05:06
do we assess how big of an impact this
05:08
has on the market well we got a look at
05:10
the bond market especially the corporate
05:12
bond market. how do you look at the whole
05:13
corporate bond market? the biggest impact
05:16
the easiest way to look at this (in my
05:18
opinion) is corporate bond ETFs
05:20
especially the lower levels because when
05:23 低レベルの社債っていうのは信用の低い社債のことです。
I say lower levels I mean lower credit
05:25
ratings the Fed is really going to be
05:26 FEDは高格付け債だけに注力するのではなく
concentrating not just on higher grade
05:29 ジャンク債にも注力していく。
but also on junk bonds junk bonds
05:31
basically means it just has a lower
05:32
rating we're talking about BBB - or BBB
05:35 BBB-/Baa3以上の格付けならなんでも
3 anything above this the Fed is
05:37 FEDは買い入れるつもりだ
actually willing to buy as long as the
05:40 その債権が3/22以降に発行された新しいものである限りは。
bond is a new bond that was issued after
05:42
March 22 so a little bit of a big deal I
05:46
mean coming in and buying directly bonds
05:48
I think it's quite a big an impact but
05:50
numbers don't lie
05:51
charts don't lie so let's see how much
05:54
have been impacted this really have in
05:55
the market so I look at two main ETFs or
05:58
corporate bonds the two biggest ones
06:00
that I know of J and K and hyg so
06:03
looking at both of these looking at a
06:05
daily chart right now the market impact
06:09
actually wasn't that big if we're
06:10
looking at volume here right
06:14
today's volume okay it was kind of
06:16
normal ish in my opinion right how about
06:19
hyg also kind of normal if not that big
06:23
obviously this is a nice green candle
06:26
for both of them right markets are up
06:27          先物が2%上がった事実を考えると
today now given the fact that futures
06:30
are pointing up 2% okay at 1.4 right now
06:33
most likely these are going to gap up so
06:36
it's going to open up around here right
06:37
for J and K also for hyg
06:40
so markets are going up but we need to
06:43
really see the volume how big is this
06:46
news really gonna have on the market
06:49
this news about the Fed buying
06:50
individual corporate bonds we need to
06:53
look at these charts and see today when
06:56
US markets open on the 16th u.s. time
07:00
what type of volume are we're gonna see
07:02
here what type of movement are we gonna
07:03
see here are we gonna go up are we gonna
07:05
close on the highs right markets look
07:08
like right now they're gonna close and
07:09
they're gonna open about 1.4 percent
07:11
higher but are they gonna maintain that
07:13
strength throughout the whole day or
07:15
then go back down negative even close
07:17
down on the day that's possible
07:19
or they're gonna keep going up the
07:21
volume
07:22
I think today's action is really going
07:24
to determine whether the short-term
07:26
decline trend that we're in right now
07:28
for the last week who is it going to
07:30
last or not going to last
07:32
I think today's action is really going
07:34
to be a key puzzle piece in determining
07:36 今の所は、全てのトレンドは
this as of right now all trends are
07:39 ダウントレンドを示している
still pointing lowering you look at hyg
07:41
or jnk the MACD and the stochastics are
07:45
both pointing for a lower trend down J
07:47
and K and hig basically everything not
07:51
just this but also just looking at the
07:53
overall market looking at crude oil a
07:58
lot of different indicators right now
08:00
are still pointing towards the market
08:02
going down so looking at right now let's
08:05
say just the S&P index we still have the
08:08
island reversal here the market is still
08:11 高値に戻れていない、この島に再び戻ろうとしている
not caught back up and retaking this
08:13
island almost sounds like a reality TV
08:16
show we take the island here it has not
08:20
done so and the much stochastics are
08:21
still going down MACD is still going
08:24
down a lot of things are still pointing
08:26
in a downtrend put call option ratio
08:29
still going up indicating that there's
08:31
more buying right now puts then calls
08:33
but if a defensive indicator the
08:36
volatility ratio which basically means
08:38
before volatility divided by current
08:40
spot volatility a ratio usually is a
08:43
good indicator of the market going up
08:45
together and down together with the
08:46
market right now it's still going in a
08:48
down direction so is this going to
08:50
continue or not. looking at crude oil
08:53
soar the same thing right
08:54
oil has been moving really in a similar
08:56
pattern with the stock market the last
08:58
few months and crude oil also Matthews
09:00
pointing down and stochastics are
09:02
pointing down not just that the dollar
09:05 ドルは最近市場と逆の動きをしていた
the doll has been going in the opposite
09:07
direction of the market lately which
09:10 ドルはそういう風に動くものなんだけど
that's actually the way it's supposed to
09:12
be you know usually usually the dollar
09:15
it's supposed to sorry
09:18 歴史的には、ドルは、
historically guys the dollar supposed to
09:20 いや通貨というものは
usually a currencies are supposed to go
09:21 株式市場と一緒に下がっていくものなんです、
down with the stock market as a signal
09:23 中央銀行が金利を下げるシグナルになるんです。
that the my central bank is going to cut
09:25
interest rates but lately it's been
09:27 でも最近は変わった動きをしている、そして今は
doing its own funky thing and right now
09:29 ドルは上を指している、つまり
the dollars pointing going up meaning
09:32 ドルが上がっていて
that the dollars going up there's a
09:34 現金のドル需要が上がっている
demand right now for cash right this is
09:37
what happened during the corona crash it
09:39
went down initially and then went up so
09:41
it looks like right now we're at the
09:43
very beginning of a more demand for
09:45
dollars a little bit of a defensive
09:47
indicator in my opinion so all this
09:50 これら全部を考えると、僕の結論は
taking to account my conclusion is we
09:53
are still the charts don't lie numbers
09:56
don't lie
09:56
I could be totally wrong Trump can say
09:59
whatever he wants Jerome Powell can say
10:01
whatever he wants anybody can say
10:03
whatever they want matter how much power
10:05       市場そのものより大きな力を持つ人はいません。
you have. nobody has more power than the
10:07 市場が市場の先行きを決めるんです。
market the market is what determines the
10:09    とても古い格言
market very old adage but it's so true
10:13
charts don't lie right now we're still
10:15 今はダウントレンドです。数字をこねくり回すことはできるけど
going in a downtrend you can play around
10:16
with these numbers use different numbers
10:18
for fast slow signals Macke stochastics
10:22 多くはダウントレンドを示しています。
they're all still for the most part
10:23
pointing towards downtrend
10:25
so we'll see it's a tough tough thing
10:28 納得しにくいルール・アドバイスだけど
that tough code to swallow tough advice
10:29 1番の僕からのアドバイスは、
to follow but my biggest advice is we'll
10:31 おすすめは、
see I still recommend right now's the
10:33 新しいポジションを取らないことです
time you don't really take new positions
10:36 ポジションを減らすか
you decrease positions or you increase
10:38 買いたいならヘッジを買うべきです
if you're going to increase increase
10:40 ヘッジっていうのは保険です。
your hedges insurance hedge just means
10:43
insurance guys so increase your
10:44
insurance policy if you own a bunch of
10:46
stocks now's a good time to be buying
10:49
some pod options maybe selling some
10:51
stocks some positions or shorting stocks
10:53
that you don't like that you think that
10:55
are gonna go down but overall my biggest
10:58
advice so far I've been taking positions
11:01
off over the last month right I've been
11:03
telling my subscribers I've already
11:05
taken off 2/3 positions for us oh and
11:08
huge wins both 50% higher still got a
11:12
third laugh but it's okay that's the way
11:14
things were always keep a little bit
11:15
because you don't know so slowly by
11:18
slowly that's how I was taught
11:20
took off all of our positions and
11:22
currencies right Mexican peso Brazilian
11:25
Real Russian rubles South Africans our
11:27
Turkish lira there are all small wins
11:29
but there are wins and sitting and
11:31
waiting because the market right now yes
11:33
it's in a downtrend but it's a little
11:35
bit funky downtrend because we're going
11:37
up and down up and down so until it
11:38
really determines the next wave of what
11:41
direction it's gonna go in sit still be
11:44
a lion I know it sounds like I'm being
11:46
too cool for school but yes a lion it
11:50
sits and waits waiting to pounce waiting
11:53
for the right time then you attack in
11:56
the meantime learn sit and learn and
12:00
relax and wait conserve energy this is
12:04
my biggest recommendation so I hope you
12:07
guys found this Yubel useful please
12:09
check me out also on Twitter sometimes I
12:11
comment people send me thousands of
12:13
comments every day on charts and what I
12:14
think and sometimes I comment I'm also
12:16
interested in your comments as well not
12:19
just to follow me not just because I
12:21
want to increase my subscribers and
12:22
followers guys I'm here to learn from
12:24
you as well this is not a one-way street
12:26
I'm here to learn too so if you have
12:29
good ideas if you see a chart if you saw
12:31
see somebody saying something on social
12:33
media that's interesting please forward
12:35
it retweet it whatever you want you can
12:37
tag me I don't care do whatever this
12:40
information sharing this is how we all
12:42
learn from each other and we can all
12:44
make money together we ride waves
12:46
together especially in big macro markets
12:48 incice=index,indication
like currencies indices they're big
12:50
enough that we can all get on the same
12:52
wave together and we could all win
12:53
together so guys thanks again for
12:56
watching I hope you found this useful
12:57
I'm gonna be publishing a book soon in
12:59
Japan actually a few books I'll probably
13:01
do an English version soon but again
13:04
sorry guys I'm playing catch-up in the
13:06
English part always want your advice
13:08
please comment thanks again for watching
13:09
guys have a great day stay safe
13:11
everybody looking forward to talk